Anomalous Solar Activity

One of things that doesn’t seem to be being reported much is the change in the suns activity. It’s almost glaring by it’s absence.

We are now on the 29^th day of extra solar activity. The sun varies quite a lot in activity and spikes quite often, but this spikes are usually short lived, many not lasting out a few days. But recently we have had 29 almost continuous days of it. Solar activity or maximum occurs about every 11 years, but this year seem peculiar and more than usually. Looking at past record which are sketchy at best you can see an obvious approximate 11 year period, which is well known but behind this seems to be about 165 year period of 15 cycles, not obvious from the sketchy figures, but can be inferred. Both vary in length, but not tremendously, quite often depending on when you take the cycles to and from, but about 11 and 165 years.

The last major event from the sun was called the Carrington Event that happened in 1859, 165 years ago.

So much for the statistical timings of these events.

But there is another confirmation in the levels of Carbon-14.

Carbon 14 is a radioactive isotope of carbon that is assumed to be reasonably constant, allowing it to be used for carbon dating, but there was a spike of it in 874BC and weaker ones in 660BC and 993BC, many others simply not known. But this gives a similar timing average of 166 years. Carbon 14 is useful for measuring solar activity as the more protons there are coming from the sun, the more Carbon 14 is produced, and it’s been increasing over the past 300 years, being at it’s highest for maybe 1200 years. The minimums for carbon 14 matching the minimums for temperature.

It has been assumed in the past that the minimums were just because of limited growth and intake, but this is just an untested assumption, the possibility being that the sun was less active and producing less output, really ramping up in the past 150 years.

We now come to solar activity over the past 29 days where it’s been highest its been continually for a long time, not since just before the Carrington Event.

The earth has a magnetic shield that due to geomagnetic movement is currently slightly weaker than average, but it is still there. Being hit by small coronal mass ejections is quite common, but big solar events prompt big effects, the big difference coming from the polarity of that ejection.

A high intensity ejection at the right point and polarity hitting the earth directly with a weakened field would be very bad news for sensitive electrical components, or a society that depends solely on them, something that has not been around in the past. Smaller ones have caused blackouts around the world, a large one possibly having the effect of a worldwide EMP. For a cash based system not too bad, things can continue, but for a completely digital payment system, its total loss, possibly permanently with the cascade failures it causes elsewhere.

The limits for an event based on these carbon 14 spikes is between 1978 and 2073 the the peak risk around 2025, close to the next solar maximum.

What is also a bit concerning is that a large peak is quite often followed by a large fall, so an acute solar minimum when things get quite cold.

Around 1978 the thinking was that everything pointed to being on the threshold of a new ice age, but subsequent measurements and modelling flipped to global warming and overheating.

Nothing may happen and average temperatures may still go up to +2C by the end of the century. But odd things are happening that are being ignored as evidence as they don’t agree with what has been decided to be true.