Coronal Mass Ejection

26/02/2023 – Extremely high and unusual solar proton emissions slightly later than expected by model predicted at 24/02/2023. Aurorae seen as far south as Cornwall in UK. Next point of concern around 16/05/2023. It is quite difficult to eliminate general fluctuations and what and what not to count towards a cycle. So the probability is that the most likely period is 78 days with extended periods of about periods 50X, 15X and 3X, so 78 days, 3900 days, 58,500 days and 175,500 days. (78 days, 10.7 years, 160 years and 480 years.)

25/01/2023 – High Xray emissions from sun.

20/01/2023 – High solar emissions and xray emissions from sun. Rough estimation of next 2 danger points, 03/04/2023 & 15/06/2023.

07/12/2022 High solar emissions but low xray emissions from sun. Next point around 24/02/2023.

02/10/2022 – Strong solar flare, X1 emitted by sun, although next real danger point around January 2024, about a year before solar maxima.

27/09/2022 – 19:50 High Proton emissions from sun. Next risk point possibly 11/12/2022. Rough estimation of cycles, 71-78 days (73?), 9-13 years, 160-170 years and 450-550 years, periods 50X, 15X and 3X.

16/08/2022 – 22:00 High Proton Emissions from sun. X-ray emissions quite high.

12/07/2022 – Higher than normal proton, but lessening x-ray emissions continue. Next calculated Risk point now 24/09/2022

The sun rotates at about once every 24 days on the ecliptic, varying up to 27 days, and a CME may take between 13 hours to 80 days to get here averaging 3.5 days, averaging about 300mph. The earth goes around the sun at about 1 degree a day, so the sun spinning up to 3 times on it’s axis and the earth moving up to 1/5th of the way around it’s solar orbit. There are about 17 times the number of CME’s in a solar maximum compared to a solar minimum. Last solar maximum in 2011, happening about every 11 years with the current cycle being higher than normal. Major CME events seem to happen a few years after this maximum. Major minimums and maximum seem to have a cycle length of about 88 years or 8 sun cycles, sub cycle 75 days. Maximum spread radius of 16 degrees. Odds once every 11 years x 360/16 – every 247 years. Using the data from known minimum cycles as well as the data from maximum cycles, the sun also seems to have a larger cycle of about 165 years or about 15 solar cycles giving a problem range of 2023-2027 for modern society and it’s technology. Next solar maximum is April 2025, so the danger period would possibly be about 1 year before this point, so about 2024. If the earths magnetosphere has also a weakness due to the magnetic pole movements it may not be too good.

Since the very high proton emissions lately, the likeliest event is in 2025 when the suns cycle should be at its peak. A combination of peak activity and poor protection due to a weakening magnetosphere would not be good for the planet. A further point about 2036 may be larger and prone to more violent CME’s, or hopefully return to normal, but the magnetic field seems to be continuing in its instability.

25/06/2022 – Co-rotating interaction region (CIR) caused a major weakness in the magnetosphere and very large sun spots were present, but CME not happening. 1st Risk point 11/07/2022

12/05/2022 – Very high Proton and X-ray emissions today. Both my mifi and freesat went down about the same time today. They are not connected, but separate systems, working on different principles, the mifi running on rechargeable batteries. The satellite lost connection with its hard disk and the wifi’s password was corrupted. I reset both to factory defaults and they worked OK again. Surge protectors seemed to have made no difference to the satellite system. Could just be a coincidence, but both have been working OK up to this point since the beginning of february and didn’t have problems last year.

01/05/2022 – Very high proton emissions from sun.

04/04/2022 – High proton emissions from sun.

09/07/2021 – For over a week now the sun has been unusually and continuously active with a higher than normal solar wind, especially in the x-ray bands. I would think local space may be becoming more hazardous, and the sun becoming more active rather than less, not boding well for the next few years. This seems to be continuing.

04/11/2021 – Exceptionally high proton emissions from sun.

31/10/2021 – High proton emission from sun.

A few things about the sun seems to be apparent. One is that there is a solar magnetic activity cycle that averages every 11 years. There is also seems to be another cycle that seems to average a multiple of 15 cycles at about 165 years between occurrences. Add to this magnetic pole movement that causes the weakening of the earth’s geomagnetic field that protects to a certain extent the earth from the sun’s direct radiation and the current magnetic wave that is travelling around the equator destabilising the protection even further, it is quite possible for a ‘perfect storm’ of an exceptional coronal mass ejection coinciding with all the cycles, the sun being at its most violent and the earth’s defences being at their weakest.

The magnetic protection has been noticeably weakening for 150 years, so there may be an underlying cycle in the earth causing this. The earth’s population not having the technology that may be affected by such things prior to 150 years ago, so not being something that would normally be noticed by pre-computer civilisations.

Magnetic pole movements are not a freak occurrence, happening commonly over the earth’s history, but the records of this are not there for times past 300 years, only being deduced from major discovered effects, the last one possibly being 30,000 ago. Nobody knows how common they are as there are no records. The rapidly coming solar maximum’s cycle may simply coincide with this ‘earth cycle,’

The next major solar maximum for CME’s is around 2025, the Carrington event of 1859 being almost exactly 15 cycles and 166 years before. This would not be good for all the electrical and computer-controlled systems around the world.

Mankind has been in its current form for maybe 250,000 years, and before about 12,000 years ago there are next to no records anywhere on the planet, all advancement considered to have happened in the last 5% of that time with nothing before. Artefacts have been discovered from 100,000 ago that showed paint or glue being mixed and contained, so there is no evidence that people were not able to devise invention at that time. Other complex objects that seem to be of ‘lizard gods’ with elongated head aspects have been discovered from 6,000 years ago, so the consideration of advancement only in the last few thousand seems suspect.

Such events may be common, but at the moment we may only now be in a technological position where those events may be systematically disastrous, prior to this possibly being a combination of not being aware, or that the effects had such an effect to reset the technology at that time, the time period since destroying any evidence of it.

You need to ask ‘if an iphone was left for 12,000 years, what would it look like after that time?’ Would it have degraded into an enriched pile of carbon and minerals, or just dust that had been blown away by the weather?

 

Updated Possibilities
Dates	Highs	Maximums
1st	03/04/2023
2nd	10/05/2023
3rd	16/06/2023	25/06/2023
4th	23/07/2023
5th	29/08/2023
6th	05/10/2023
7th	10/11/2023	23/10/2023
8th	17/12/2023
9th	23/01/2024
10th	29/02/2024	20/02/2024
11th	06/04/2024
12th	13/05/2024
13th	19/06/2024	19/06/2024
14th	25/07/2024
15th	31/08/2024
16th	07/10/2024