Where we are at present

UK government planning to rely on mainly wind and solar for power, with nuclear as a backup, but power from solar and wind set to reduce to nearly zero this week, Britain’s two planned mainly foreign financed and run nuclear facilities still way behind schedule and many times the planned cost, with most other older UK nuclear facilities set to close down soon and the planned ones at low level and maybe prone to sea level rises and storm surges, maybe risking similar to a possible Fukushima effect to render some counties and major cities of the UK risky or dangerous to live in, you do wonder what the government plans with COP29, the latest in 29 conventions that have achieved next to nothing since the first one in Berlin in 1995, 29 years ago, except to make the world’s situation less stable, using up it’s resources quicker, and environmentally and socially worse with all services today failing, getting worse, or getting impossible to access except for the wealthy and only for dangerous emergencies that have advanced to that level by continued neglect, day by day.

The UK has become like a car driver that only does repairs or maintenance when something goes wrong, eventually, catastrophically for themselves and other drivers close by on a motorway. The UK is now an accident waiting to happen, but it is not alone in this, Europe and the EU also a house of wet playing cards with a few countries in the world like playful moggies wandering into the room.

We are now importing larger and larger amounts of power from outside the UK as we can’t generate it ideologically ourselves, a situation that is likely to get worse, the massively underesourced and uncontrolled power obese UK dieting by eating a lot from the plate of the person next to them, or ordering takeaways from China and thinking they are doing good on it.
You do get this feeling that while things are decaying and dying the government is spending its game time picking out the best designs for wallpaper in the inevitable public survival shelters and planning to formulate new laws to make the world’s increasing pollution and dwindling squandered resources illegal.

The sun still seems to be playing up and the solar maximum is probably due some time in summer 2025.

We know that the sun seems to have a cycle of 11 years in which it increases and decreases in intensity. But, there may be another unrealised cycle of 165 years that is 15 of those cycles that also has an increase and decrease. About that time ago we had a recorded even called the Carrington event that seemed to be an unusually large coronal mass ejection. At that time there was little electronic technology that could be affected, as it has been for maybe 12,000 years. A few telegraph lines sparking. This is when civilisation was believed to have started.

Although homo genus intelligence has been recorded from as far back as 330,000 and those species that showed this evidence recorded maybe as far back as 500,000 years. The earth is a very attritional planet, things not staying intact or around for very long anywhere. 10,000 years and you can mostly forget it, something like an iPhone decaying into unanalysable mush after a few thousand, 10,000 and just a few rarer minerals to collect. The idea is that human invention only happened within the last 3% of its time on this planet, the rest doing nothing as nothing has been discovered. The truth is probably; ‘it wouldn’t be.’

From records another effect was observed. The earth’s magnetic poles seemed to have started travelling in a straight line after meandering around a central point and seem from that time to be speeding up in its movement, possibly indicating a polar shift. What this also does is de-stabilise slightly the earth’s geomagnetic field and therefore its protection from the sun, rendering it less capable of defecting the suns energies.

Going back to the Carrington event, nobody is sure of the meanderings of the magnetic poles really before then, but there is evidence that things changed for a while with it about 12,000 years ago. My guess is that this had the effect of knocking the electromagnet core slightly and that what we have seen is the effects of this. The straight-line move producing a few knock-on effects:

1. More radiation is getting through to the earth’s surface warming it up. This warming has been put down to human activity and CO2, but even when CO2 has stayed level or reduced the temperature has always been a constant increase. We know from the past that earths biosphere can reduce CO2 levels from 20% (20000PPM) down to its current 0.046% (360PPM.) It’s known to have done it in the past, a bit Malthusian, but CO2 is used by plants for growing and generating more plants, but they don’t seem to have compensated by dramatically increasing, so removing the extra CO2. They compensate for seasons by growing enough to give up to 4PPM CO2 variation during a single year. This constant variation of 4% has not changed even though the percentages of CO2 have. This suggests that the change in CO2 is so trivial for them that it doesn’t have any appreciable effect on their biology. But we are panicking over trivial increases of a few PPM. This also suggests that rather than CO2 driving the temperature change, that the CO2 level is simple a result of temperature change, driven, not driving. If this is the case then all we have done over the past three decades is worthless and pure waste, when we should have been looking at dealing with climate changes, not stopping them.

2. The continued movement has destabilised earths protection slightly and left if more prone to solar effects. This means that another similar event could have an amplified effect. The first event may have softened the earths protection for a subsequent event to have an even greater effect, especially with the unshielded nature of technological expanse, interdependence and interconnectiveness.

Recent evidence of the lack of storage ability of the earth’s atmosphere has come from instruments on the moon. It was noticed that although the CO2 levels stayed roughly the same during the time of covid industrial inactivity the radiation that the moon was receiving from the earth reduced for that period. With the assumption of atmospheric storage that is the backbone of continued CO2 effect this should not happen. It should always increase, just as CO2 does. It may stay level, but it should not reduce. This suggest it is not being stored, or that mankind through its activity is generating the extra accumulating heat at the surface, not the direct effects of CO2 levels and that by reducing heat production, i.e. unnecessary industrial production; we can solve the problem, if it is solvable. This goes somewhat in line with the noted problem that although during the time after the war CO2 increased in amount, but the average temperatures stayed level or decreased for a long period and that the annual change in increase and decrease of CO2 was a constant ~4PPM, rather than a proportion. Plant growth does not do this, it’s proportional to the growth medium.

Our massively wasteful and conspicuously consuming social systems have reached a level where expediency and preference for single line logistics have compromised design and resilience to an easily toppled house of cards. This has been evident in so many large firms just collapsing suddenly after decades of constant growth. Nearly every major firm, government and local council is in trouble, nobody prepared to acknowledge the problem as nobody inside is prepared to accept or even look at the likely consequences and future. Big organisations shoot messengers with news they don’t like, while all the time rotting inside like old trees, outwardly solid until a predictable catastrophic collapse ends everything. Every big organisation seems to be becoming inefficient and unwieldy, not providing even a modicum of the service they did before, only interested in their own survival, now changed to dictating and preying on those they previously provided services for. But each time it happens they weaken their own stability and survivability, not enhance or prolong it.

In the past nobody really noticed apart from maybe a few major aurorae, if they in fact we regarded, or even recorded it. Only in recent years have people been going back through the incredibly sparse and rare documents that have survived, thinking ‘hang on, this is odd.’ We miss massive civilisations, many being discovered in the last few years due very advanced technology, the massive crater that seemed to contribute to the demise of the dinosaurs only being discovered 50 years ago and regarded as such 15 years ago. So, a good record little or no chance, just scientific arrogance assuming we are the first. My guess is we probably aren’t. We may have not reached this level, progress being so quick, but it’s also possible we may have. It may be nothing, and just simple a conspiracy theory and the imagination of a few people that were once at the top of the pile in scientific circles, but rumblings from past moon astronauts suggest we are not being told the full picture of what was found. The idea being similar to that in the past that only selected and worthy people should receive education as it might cause problems socially. Are things being deliberately hidden so as not to cause social unrest and shake the status quo and a comfortable tenure?

We will now be at COP29 next month in the climate change business, having achieved absolutely no effect whatsoever from the previous 28. COP29 is unlikely to have any effect and a futile waste of space and resources because of this. I have always viewed Climate change as inevitable because I live in the real world, most climate activists and ‘scientists?’ seemingly living in the world of theory, models, ideologies and fantasies. A lot of respectable scientists now have the view that things have gone too far to change.

My guess is that like with many of the previous COP’s that they will spend most of the time still trying to work out ways of stopping it, or planning financial expenditure that never gets realised or used, partly in trivial pink elephant schemes that were predictably going to fail as they were based on naïve and non-real world unworkable principles.

As for today. We may find that we are at the peak of solar activity in the next 8 months, at the peak of a second cycle of 165 years, with a geomagnetic field that has been weakened due to the last event, with temperatures increasing, and likely to do so for quite a while, the seas level rising and speeding up, feedback enhancing this even further, less weather stability, and a civilisation that is totally non-resilient based on interdependent, interconnected and interrelated fragile systems and logistics that are evidently breaking down, with large populations packed together that depend for their existence on constant distant trade and supply. Add to this, countries becoming harsher and more belligerent with daily outrages and abuses being glossed over and ignored through claims of ‘public good,’ evidence of proven wrongdoing being hidden from ‘civilised countries’ by their own governments and controlled media.
From the viewpoint of 50 years ago, nobody thought this would be a likely outcome, maybe the almost certain now total collapse in a few hundred years though total resource exhaustion, but it seems like imminent collapse has suddenly advanced and is just around the corner now, but I’ve come to the conclusion I’m not sure if world society will last the next decade, certainly not the next century, likely to be a full and total failure throughout and back to the start of an iron age for all, maybe a few isolated communities keeping the torch alight for a few generations before they too fail. I think it unlikely that the trivial space programmes will counter anything, close in equivalence to disposable medical tests and environmentally expensive exotic tourism in manner.

If world society does fail, I think this now very likely, rather than a possibility, the past easier to get to resources that have been extracted would be the ones that any future civilisation would need to recover and rebuild. Because they have already been used up they will not be there now, only the resources and raw materials that an advanced technological society could get at, so things need to decay to a level where concentrations would allow a burgeoning society to prosper. My guess is around 10-20,000 years for this to happen. Is this a coincidence that known human development is around this scale? Maybe not.

As for our current animal and plant life, it will probably thrive for a while as human die out and recover, but I doubt it many of the species currently around will be in existence after a few thousand years, only the stronger ones, certainly none of those humans help to survive. Things like giant pandas and other rare or vulnerable ones; no chance. If they don’t die out naturally they will die out through hunting for survival food. It will be a new world with new species, hopefully humans being amongst it until the next similar cycle.