Wandering of the Geomagnetic Pole

The geomagnetic pole is an area of the earth where the magnetic is seen to be vertical, also called the dip pole. Normally they wander about the earth near the north and south poles in a more or less haphazard way according to the molten core of the earth below us. The earth spins on an axis and through fluid flow tends to follow the general pattern of the earth. This gives us our geomagnetic field which encompasses the earth and is a form of protection from the suns intense radiation. Where these areas are weakened there is less protection and you get things like auroras appearing, the greater the disruption the more likely the aurora will appear in lower latitudes.

The earth’s geomagnetic field gives a shield against the suns radiation and any changes in this could cause a change in the general climate pattern. Planets and bodies that don’t seem to have this shield, an example being Mars, a planet farther out from the sun, but together with being smaller, has only a small field, and appear to have their atmosphere stripped and subject to intense radiation. The field doesn’t appear to have been lost, just fractionally changed or weakened for a while.

In 1590, through modelling by organisations like NOAA, it was supposed to have been at about 112W, 74N, moving north for about 250 miles until about 1640 at about 111W, 77N, then south again for 200 miles until about 1750, then started travelling 600 miles east until about 1860, where it reached its most southerly position, 500 miles south of 1640.

Then around that time something seemed to happen and things changed. What would maybe be an expected move back to the east changed to a move to the north and has continued at an accelerating rate. In about 1885 the return seemed normal, but instead of heading east it started north and by 1940 had noticeably deviated from a return line and by 1980 had exceeded what seems to be its most northward point for the past 500 years. It has now travelled more than 1000 miles past this most northerly distance, three times the variation previously seen and showing no sign of deviating from this line or possibly slowing down at a speed of about 34 miles a year down a 90E line.

In contrast, the south geomagnetic pole has move from about the same time varied by about 1000 miles until about 1850 and continued north on a about a 130E line north and is now about 1000 mile north of that, travelling at a rate of about 6 miles a year.

So, what do we have? Maybe this is a natural variation that we haven’t previously been aware of, not having things that made it noticeable, technology that may show it only being available since about 1800. The only other observations of an effect of a slightly weakened field would be something like auroras observed at low latitudes, the first in Chinese records about 2600BC, 960BC, then Assyrian records about 850BC and 567BC in Babylon. There are known others in 34AD, 620, 1570, 1619, 1723, a very strong one in 1770, 1793 and a really noticeable effect in 1859 also seen in primitive electrical equipment with what is known as the Carrington Event.

Records of such events are very sketchy, there being little recorded before the 1700’s. They probably happened, but were either not notable, or more like just not recorded because of lack of chroniclers of the time.

One thing that is noticeable is that the earth’s magnetic field has been weakening for the past 200 years, by about 9%. The last real significant time it happened was about 42,000 year ago with what is called the Laschamps Event where there is evidence of environmental change that lasted over a 500 year period.

A lot of scientists claim that such effects have little major noticeable climate impact on the world, but in the same breath they have to admit that the Laschamps Event had an impact on the world, discounting it mainly based on lack of recorded effect in purely in polar regions that might be buffered by being covered in ice. The view ‘if we can’t see the direct effect through our indirect modelling, it didn’t happen.’ The biggest problem is that because of world climate 99% of such events are quickly concealed.

What is pointed out that paleomagnetic studies seem to indicate that the magnetic field is as strong as its been for 100,000 years and that we are living in a million year period of double the average strength as normal, but that quite often comes down to ignoring variation in shorter or lesser periods, things staying steady over all that period, a bit like ignoring something like Chicxulub as having an impact on the earth as it was only discovered 50 years ago, seen as having no impact before as we didn’t know about it and discovered purely by chance. But if you choose rocks that by their nature have better responses you have already affected this standard. The ‘Rose Tinted’ effect. That such a major high of 100,000 or a million years has decreased by 9% over only 200 years is ignored, a trend if continued would mean that it would be at an all time low and one fifth of average after 2,500 years.

Paleomagnetism modelling is the latest specialisation that suffers from excessive precision thinking, being mainly for massive groups of rocks, previously for calculating tectonic plate movements and not the odd pebble here and there, and is very much a subjective discipline as in the world things move around, records of rocks being at million year levels, not a decade or yearly level exactness as the impression its proponents give. Timing boiling an egg is not very good with a paleomagnetic timer as it tend to get fossilised and chickens go extinct before you can eat it. Rocks take from 1 day with molten ones to million of years for sedimentary and even then can take thousands of years to stabilise, moving around due to faults and pressure, folding and turning with arbitrary directions. If you then choose those you consider significant and typical you have already made a subconscious decision as to the prior outcome.

There seem to be two major events that are noticeable: The Carrington Event and Neanderthals. One is around the time a lot of climate changes started to happen and accelerate, also the linear change in the geomagnetic poles, the other in changes to humans. We know they happened, unlike a lot of modelling, which is mainly based on theory.

The Carrington Event. Watched at its start and effects observed. Most changes in the environment being dated from around that time for some reason. How hard did it hit and what were the subsequent effects.

One thing that is noticeable about 40,000 years ago, is that around that time Homo Sapiens Sapiens became prominent over Neanderthals and Denisovans after half a million years of those being the most significant human species. Deglaciation happened in our area around 12,000 years ago, the Doggerland bridge disappearing about 6,200 years ago, so possibly 30,000 years before the former simply replaced by a superior species? That is unless you are aware that this not the first incursion by modern human species, but the only successful one that happened and completely over maybe a 150,000 period, that happening quite a few times without success, the modern humans disappearing a number of times in concurrent areas. Are we here because we are better? Or is this just an example of survivorship bias? If so, and things like climate change is not stoppable, will sapiens be replaced with neuvolensis a species that may tolerate higher temperatures better? Did sapiens become extinct because they weren’t as clever as they thought they were and ignored all the obvious signs that any neuvolensis member would have easily seen? Clearly a primitive species.

So we have possibilities, especially combined with the latest sun patterns and maximums in the next 3 years that may take advantage of this. With today’s complex, interconnected, interdependent and interrelated systems wholly based on fragile electronics it does tend to make you wonder what a Carrington Event or worse would make of the world today with cascade effects. In 1965 a faulty 50p relay caused loss of power to 30 million people, some not having power back for months. How would online banking fare if it happened to London if online payments weren’t there anymore? How would a bank balance of £50 million work? Or even £500.

Less developed countries would go on fairly normally, except in the cities.

You do feel that the whole of the village and surrounding country is putting every egg into one basket with extreme specialisation and dependency on things working exactly right and exactly on time.

With the science suggesting that random effect is the rule for all, maybe all of these things are just random and unconnected events. Coincidences do happen, but they should not happen too often, and there are too many similar datings.

The consensus is that the electromagnetic field protects us from the sun and why we are here, but the consensus is also that climate is not altered by it as the field doesn’t protect us from the sun and doesn’t vary by much. We have the consensus that change takes hundreds or thousands of years, but know that world disasters can happen in seconds, climate change being altered in a hundred or a decade, but ignoring for various chosen ideas that it happens over thousands or million of years. We have the consensus from paleo record models about things today like climate change, but we have the consensus that older paleo record models are not significant today, cherrypicking evidence.