Viruses & Bacteria

As we go into areas we don’t normally venture such as caves and dense forests we will encounter reservoirs of disease that our systems have not experienced before. it’s likely that a lot of new diseases are from this form, taking to opportunity to infect new species in a similar way. SARS, MERS and Covid-19 are of this type.

The other form of access for these pathogens is in the food we eat. New and novel foods come with a risk, especially if they are from new and novel sources. Bush meat and Ebola are linked in this fashion.

Another form of access is via an intermediary species that does not normally encounter certain foods, such as feeding meat products to herbivorves whose systems are not accustomed to such things having evolved none of the protective measures to prevent it. BSE is of this form. Animals products are then consumed by humans, bypassing the normal means.

Others just transfer when we keep large numbers of similar creatures in an area that are susceptible to transfers from wild roaming creatures such as birds. Bird flu is of this type. Keeping large numbers in close proximity to other large numbers of animals give many crossover chances.

The diseases invariably take a different form of access to be transmitted than originally.

Covid-19 was successful in escaping the systems to prevent such a thing from happening by the perfect storm of being infectious and dangerous enough but not so dangerous to cause immediate alarm and alerts. The outbreak being seen by the people involved at the start as an embarrassment to their system, rather than the serious risk that could have resulted in the system being lost completely by their actions.

We can never be sure how many times such things have happened, with major disease outbreaks occurring about on average every 100 years. As there weren’t the processes in place to stop them, similar things to Asian Flu, Hong Kong Flu, Bird Flu, BSE, SARS, MERS, Covid-19, Swine Flu, AID’s would have expanded to much larger areas and have been noticeable if they had happened. The fact that we have had 9 such events that were mostly stopped within the last 63 years, 5 within the past 20, so now a major event every 5 years, something in human nature and activity has probably promoted this.

I’ve been following the covid virus for 129 weeks now. Originally, I thought that it would be very limited, but that changed about 127 weeks ago, when the numbers began to rise and we found out more about it.

I still have the opinion I had right at the start in January 2020 that it was coming our way big time and we will have the effects for at least a decade, possibly two.

Another way it could have appeared is by infecting a different creature, going up and down the scales like a piano affair, each time it transfers up and down requiring significant modification to work and re-infect. Requiring constant close proximity, this would cause a very large number of mutations just to make this possible, probably a lot more than the ones seen in Omicron, which has not really significantly changed from its previous variant. Because of the lack of real difference, I would think it unlikely and more likely the first scenario. We are now into the 3rd year of the virus and I am still of the opinion that I had in January 2020 that we will have problems with it for at least a decade, possibly two, the current stage being nearer to the start of the outbreak, not the end, so must make plans as such.

Multiple combination versions are now starting to appear with recorded cases of ‘deltacron’, a combination of omicron and delta variants, probably from people who have host both versions at the same time. There has always been evidence of such refinements, new variants emerging, not from a single change in one type, but multiple changes happening and ‘cross pollinating’ to produce that new ‘wildly different’ variant in a longer than normal infection term. A covid infection maybe not being just from one form, but always multiples of that form, only the dominant form in the body in any period being detected, and testing catered for. So in high concentration areas you might get omicron, but with B1 and B2 subtypes  1,2,3, XE, 4 & 5. This does not bode well for areas that have similar type diseases that still have infections of those. What an Omicron or deltacron infection would do with something like a parallel SARS or MERS is worrying. A type 4 or 5 crossover with MERS or SARS would really change the situation towards a civilisation killer.