The recent long term and higher than normal solar activity, plus the increasing occurrence of ‘rare’ Northern Lights or aurorae tends to suggest that things are warming up with the sun. It may just be normal for solar maximums people just not analysing them so well in the past, but they do seem unusual. Something like this would have registered with the general population and records of things happening at the same time would come along with the flow of information. ‘There was a glow in the sky and my dog was ill’ sort of thing,’ but what we have been seeing are unusual additions connected with the events that have little previous mention.<\/p>\n
Recently scientists have been looking at suns similar to our own in the cosmos and found that most stars like our own have superflares. The statistics suggest that a solar flare that is similar or exceeding the power of something like the Carrington event would on average happen every 100 years.<\/p>\n
JetBlue flight 1230, an Airbus A320, traveling from Mexico to New Jersey, which landed at in Tampa at 14:19 EST, experienced a sudden drop in altitude on 30\/10\/2025 that was probably down to the sun\u2019s radiation that is a lot higher at altitude, affecting its electronics that cause a number of injuries. It\u2019s no surprise that with the high levels of solar radiation we have been experiencing at the moment that Airbus are hastily upgrading about 6,000 aircraft, and this is a thing that probably applies to many aircraft manufacturers. It\u2019s said to be just a precautionary thing, but the speed and scope of the recall suggests otherwise, something that is suddenly becoming noticeable with the change in the current sun\u2019s environment. It\u2019s probable also linked to the latitude of the aircraft and the time of day. If the radiation can affect covered and shielded electronics then there may be a problem with the effect on people in those planes.<\/p>\n
Unless we are at a solar maximum, not expected for some time yet, expected from now to 7 months time, but a year earlier than predictions, it is likely that we will see extra unusual happenings and if this coincides with a more powerful mass ejection in our direction with the wrong polarity we are in for a bad time with our modern technological and inter-relying society.<\/p>\n
Likeliest next period 18\/12\/2024<\/p>\n
10\/11\/2024 – 16th day of higher than normal solar activity. So far we have had ending 10\/1, 23\/1, 29\/1, 17\/2, 12\/4, 16\/5, 9\/6, 21\/8, 30\/10 and 16\/11.<\/p>\n
02\/11\/2024 – 8th day of higher than normal solar activity. Probably the 10th this year.<\/p>\n
16\/10\/2024 – 11th day of higher than normal solar activity, today being extremely high. It may be a continuation of the last period, extending it to 45 days, or a new one, making it the 9th.<\/p>\n
01\/10\/2024 – 30 days of higher than normal solar activity. This is the 8th such period this year, march and may events being very significant, with the solar maximum still something like 9 months away. The probability is now it may be a much larger event than we have seen in the past.<\/p>\n
15\/09\/2024 – 14 days of higher than normal solar activity.<\/p>\n
11\/08\/2024 – 21 days of higher than normal levels from sun.<\/p>\n
06\/08\/2024 – 11 days of higher x-rays than normal levels from sun.<\/p>\n
13\/06\/2024 – 9 days of higher than normal levels of activity from sun, the fourth such occurrence this year totalling 92 days out of 167 or 55%. Solar maximum should be around 380 days away.<\/p>\n
05\/06\/2024 – 3 days of higher than normal levels from sun.<\/p>\n
30\/05\/2024 – 2 days of higher than normal x-ray levels from sun. It’s very likely that if there is going to be a major CME that is very disruptive we will have 2 days advanced notice from a prior X-Ray burst.<\/p>\n
24\/05\/2024 – 16 days so far of continuous higher than normal solar activity, the third such occurrence this year totalling 69 days out of 144 or 48%.<\/p>\n
10\/05\/2024 – High solar activity. Possible CME fitting evening of 10\/05\/2024.<\/p>\n
09\/05\/2024 – Very high X-ray level from Sun.<\/p>\n
25\/04\/2024 – 12 days of higher than normal x-ray activity from sun.<\/p>\n
23\/04\/2024 – 4 major coronal mass ejections observed. Likely to hit on 25\/04\/2024.<\/p>\n
19\/04\/2024 – 6 days of higher than normal solar activity.<\/p>\n
14\/04\/2024 – Higher than normal solar activity.<\/p>\n
14\/04\/2024 – 5 days of regular pulsing solar activity.<\/p>\n
05\/03\/2024 – We have just had 44 days worth of nearly continuous higher than normal solar actvity, suggesting a real build up. The unusual band started on 22nd January. A normal higher intensity band lasts for maybe 2-5 days, but we have had 11 day band at the start of January and checking back a slightly unusual 14 day one in November. It could be that this is normal for the run up to a solar maximum, the last one in April 2014 when recording was not so advanced and the previous one November 2001, but it implies that the sun could during this time have a higher base line for affecting earth, very large flares in 2003 and in February 2022 knocking out 40 Starlink satellites.<\/p>\n
28\/12\/2023 – The California coastline seems to be getting more surge waves hitting it’s coast. Probably due to flooding threshold levels being passed as the sea level worldwide rises an extra new layer riding on lower levels. We may find this happening on a few coastlines as this happens.<\/p>\n
16\/12\/2023 – Extremely high and unusual solar proton emissions. Highest probability now<\/p>\n
15\/02\/2024 with solar maximum around 13\/07\/2024.<\/p>\n
05\/11\/2023 – High and unusual solar proton emissions.<\/p>\n
25\/09\/2023 – Extremely high and unusual solar proton emissions.<\/p>\n
18\/09\/2023 – Extremely high and unusual solar proton emissions.<\/p>\n
02\/09\/2023 – Extremely high and unusual solar proton emissions. Things seem to be happening faster than expected with shortening times. Highest probability now 14\/02\/2024 with solar maximum around 15\/07\/2024.<\/p>\n
17\/08\/2023 – Extremely high and unusual solar proton emissions<\/p>\n
26\/02\/2023 – Extremely high and unusual solar proton emissions slightly later than expected by model predicted at 24\/02\/2023. Aurorae seen as far south as Cornwall in UK. Next point of concern around 16\/05\/2023. It is quite difficult to eliminate general fluctuations and what and what not to count towards a cycle. So the probability is that the most likely period is 78 days with extended periods of about periods 50X, 15X and 3X, so 78 days, 3900 days, 58,500 days and 175,500 days. (78 days, 10.7 years, 160 years and 480 years.)<\/p>\n
25\/01\/2023 – High Xray emissions from sun.<\/p>\n
20\/01\/2023 – High solar emissions and xray emissions from sun. Rough estimation of next 2 danger points, 03\/04\/2023 & 15\/06\/2023.<\/p>\n
07\/12\/2022 High solar emissions but low xray emissions from sun. Next point around 24\/02\/2023.<\/p>\n
02\/10\/2022 – Strong solar flare, X1 emitted by sun, although next real danger point around January 2024, about a year before solar maxima.<\/p>\n
27\/09\/2022 – 19:50 High Proton emissions from sun. Next risk point possibly 11\/12\/2022. Rough estimation of cycles, 71-78 days (73?), 9-13 years, 160-170 years and 450-550 years, periods 50X, 15X and 3X.<\/p>\n
16\/08\/2022 – 22:00 High Proton Emissions from sun. X-ray emissions quite high.<\/p>\n
12\/07\/2022 – Higher than normal proton, but lessening x-ray emissions continue. Next calculated Risk point now 24\/09\/2022<\/p>\n
The sun rotates at about once every 24 days on the ecliptic, varying up to 27 days, and a CME may take between 13 hours to 80 days to get here averaging 3.5 days, averaging about 300mph. The earth goes around the sun at about 1 degree a day, so the sun spinning up to 3 times on it’s axis and the earth moving up to 1\/5th of the way around it’s solar orbit. There are about 17 times the number of CME’s in a solar maximum compared to a solar minimum. Last solar maximum in 2011, happening about every 11 years with the current cycle being higher than normal. Major CME events seem to happen a few years after this maximum. Major minimums and maximum seem to have a cycle length of about 88 years or 8 sun cycles, sub cycle 75 days. Maximum spread radius of 16 degrees. Odds once every 11 years x 360\/16 – every 247 years. Using the data from known minimum cycles as well as the data from maximum cycles, the sun also seems to have a larger cycle of about 165 years or about 15 solar cycles giving a problem range of 2023-2027 for modern society and it’s technology. Next solar maximum is estimated to be July 2024, so the danger period would possibly start about 1 year before this point, so about July 2023. If the earths magnetosphere has also a weakness due to the magnetic pole movements it may not be too good.<\/p>\n
Since the very high proton emissions lately, the likeliest event is in mid 2024 when the suns cycle should be at its peak. A combination of peak activity and poor protection due to a weakening magnetosphere would not be good for the planet. A further point about 2035 may be larger and prone to more violent CME’s, or hopefully return to normal, but the magnetic field seems to be continuing in its instability.<\/p>\n
25\/06\/2022 – Co-rotating interaction region (CIR) caused a major weakness in the magnetosphere and very large sun spots were present, but CME not happening. 1st Risk point 11\/07\/2022<\/p>\n
12\/05\/2022 – Very high Proton and X-ray emissions today. Both my mifi and freesat went down about the same time today. They are not connected, but separate systems, working on different principles, the mifi running on rechargeable batteries. The satellite lost connection with its hard disk and the wifi’s password was corrupted. I reset both to factory defaults and they worked OK again. Surge protectors seemed to have made no difference to the satellite system. Could just be a coincidence, but both have been working OK up to this point since the beginning of february and didn’t have problems last year.<\/p>\n
01\/05\/2022 – Very high proton emissions from sun.<\/p>\n
04\/04\/2022 – High proton emissions from sun.<\/p>\n
09\/07\/2021 – For over a week now the sun has been unusually and continuously active with a higher than normal solar wind, especially in the x-ray bands. I would think local space may be becoming more hazardous, and the sun becoming more active rather than less, not boding well for the next few years. This seems to be continuing.<\/p>\n
04\/11\/2021 – Exceptionally high proton emissions from sun.<\/p>\n
31\/10\/2021 – High proton emission from sun.<\/p>\n
A few things about the sun seems to be apparent. One is that there is a solar magnetic activity cycle that averages every 11 years. There is also seems to be another cycle that seems to average a multiple of 15 cycles at about 165 years between occurrences. Add to this magnetic pole movement that causes the weakening of the earth\u2019s geomagnetic field that protects to a certain extent the earth from the sun\u2019s direct radiation and the current magnetic wave that is travelling around the equator destabilising the protection even further, it is quite possible for a \u2018perfect storm\u2019 of an exceptional coronal mass ejection coinciding with all the cycles, the sun being at its most violent and the earth\u2019s defences being at their weakest.<\/p>\n
The magnetic protection has been noticeably weakening for 150 years, so there may be an underlying cycle in the earth causing this. The earth\u2019s population not having the technology that may be affected by such things prior to 150 years ago, so not being something that would normally be noticed by pre-computer civilisations.<\/p>\n
Magnetic pole movements are not a freak occurrence, happening commonly over the earth\u2019s history, but the records of this are not there for times past 300 years, only being deduced from major discovered effects, the last one possibly being 30,000 ago. Nobody knows how common they are as there are no records. The rapidly coming solar maximum\u2019s cycle may simply coincide with this \u2018earth cycle,\u2019<\/p>\n
The next major solar maximum for CME\u2019s is around 2025, the Carrington event of 1859 being almost exactly 15 cycles and 166 years before. This would not be good for all the electrical and computer-controlled systems around the world. They are also common know as Miyake events, with discoveries recently of dates of 774AD and 993AD, and by working out ones from carbon spikes in tree rings a very old massive one 14,300 years ago. If the 774 and 993 ones were seemingly typical that is only 219 years apart, the Carrington event happening when there was little technology around to cause any major problems, today everywhere and interdependent.<\/p>\n
Mankind has been in its current form for maybe 250,000 years, tool use maybe as much as 500,000 years and before about 12,000 years ago there are next to no records anywhere on the planet, all advancement considered to have happened in the last 5% of that time with nothing before. Artefacts have been discovered from 100,000 ago that showed paint or glue being mixed and contained, and possible humanlike adaptations of the environment at 500,000 years, so there is no evidence that people were not able to devise invention at that time. Other complex objects that seem to be of \u2018lizard gods\u2019 with elongated head aspects have been discovered from 6,000 years ago, so the consideration of advancement only in the last few thousand seems suspect. There is a small possibility that if there was any advanced technology 14,300 years ago none of it might have survived, giving a stone age reset.<\/p>\n
Such events may be common, but at the moment we may only now be in a technological position where those events may be systematically disastrous, prior to this possibly being a combination of not being aware, or that the effects had such an effect to reset the technology at that time, the time period since destroying any evidence of it.<\/p>\n
You need to ask \u2018if an iphone was left for 12,000 years, what would it look like after that time?\u2019 Would it have degraded into an enriched pile of carbon and minerals, or just dust that had been blown away by the weather?<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
| Updated Possibilities of coincident events<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| Dates<\/td>\n | Highs<\/td>\n | Maximums<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 1st<\/td>\n | 03\/04\/2023<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 2nd<\/td>\n | 10\/05\/2023<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 3rd<\/td>\n | 16\/06\/2023<\/td>\n | 25\/06\/2023<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 4th<\/td>\n | 23\/07\/2023<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 5th<\/td>\n | 29\/08\/2023<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 6th<\/td>\n | 05\/10\/2023<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 7th<\/td>\n | 10\/11\/2023<\/td>\n | 23\/10\/2023<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 8th<\/td>\n | 17\/12\/2023<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 9th<\/td>\n | 23\/01\/2024<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 10th<\/td>\n | 29\/02\/2024<\/td>\n | 14\/02\/2024**<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 11th<\/td>\n | 06\/04\/2024<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 12th<\/td>\n | 13\/05\/2024<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 13th<\/td>\n | 19\/06\/2024<\/td>\n | 19\/06\/2024<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 14th<\/td>\n | 25\/07\/2024<\/td>\n | Peak?<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 15th<\/td>\n | 31\/08\/2024<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 16th<\/td>\n | 07\/10\/2024<\/td>\n | <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n <\/p>\n Question asked of Perplexity AI.<\/p>\n How likely is a Carrington event?<\/p>\n The likelihood of a Carrington event, a powerful geomagnetic storm, is estimated to be once every 100 years for a Carrington-level event and once per millennia for more powerful events. However, new research suggests a relatively high estimate of a 0.7% chance of a Carrington-class storm occurring per year, which is higher than previously thought. According to NOAA SciJunks, solar storms like the Carrington Event happen once every 500 years or so, though storms with half the intensity are more frequent, occurring about every 50 years. The Carrington Event of 1859, the largest super-storm in recorded history, occurred 164 years ago. While the exact predictability of such events is challenging, ongoing research and monitoring aim to improve our ability to forecast and prepare for these rare but potentially impactful events.<\/p>\n The potential consequences of a Carrington event, a powerful geomagnetic storm, could be significant. If a similar event were to occur today, it could lead to widespread disruption of technology and infrastructure. The 1859 Carrington Event caused telegraph networks to fail, with some lines catching fire, and disrupted compasses, leading to ships becoming lost. A study by researchers from Lloyd’s of London and the Atmospheric and Environmental Research agency estimated that a similar event today could result in economic losses ranging from $0.6 to $2.6 trillion. Solar storms like the Carrington Event are rare but can have a substantial impact on modern technological civilization, potentially causing disruption to communication, navigation, and power systems. While the 1859 event did not have measurable effects on the economy or public health at that time, the reliance on technology and interconnected systems today makes the potential consequences of a similar event more significant. Ongoing research and monitoring aim to improve our understanding of these events and enhance preparedness for their potential impact.<\/p>\n Work I\u2019ve been doing suggests that the sun has a large cycle of about 165 years, coinciding with about 15 minor cycles of observed and recorded approximate 11 years each. The Carrington Event of 1859 was such 165 or 15 cycles ago. This means that the previous coincident set of cycles was around 1694.<\/p>\n Research on sunspot activity and climatic changes during the 17th century, particularly the 1690s, has been conducted, indicating a link between solar activity and climate variations. Volcanic Cold Pulse: The 1690-1700 period experienced a volcanic cold pulse, which had global and regional impacts on temperature change.<\/p>\n 1529 – Little Ice Age.<\/p>\n 1364 – Little Ice Age<\/p>\n 1199 – Medieval Climatic Anomaly<\/p>\n 1035 \u2013 Still part of the mild medieval period but devastating 3 year famine in Europe, suggesting sudden poor weather.<\/p>\n |